1.
expectation, calculation, speculation
One's anticipated outcome or plan for how things will turn out. Often implies a strategic or self-interested calculation.
思惑どおりに事が進んだ。
Things went according to plan.
思惑が外れて損失が出た。
The speculation didn't pan out and we incurred losses.
各国の思惑が絡み合って、交渉は難航した。
The negotiations stalled as each country's calculations clashed.
2.
ulterior motive, hidden agenda
An undisclosed intention or self-serving motive behind an action. Carries a somewhat negative or suspicious nuance.
彼の親切には何か思惑がありそうだ。
There seems to be an ulterior motive behind his kindness.
政治的な思惑が働いている。
Political motives are at work.
さまざまな思惑を持った人々が集まっているから、意見がまとまらない。
Since people with various ulterior motives have gathered, opinions can't be unified.
USAGE:
A nuanced word that suggests strategic thinking. Sense 1 is neutral — one's plans or expectations. Sense 2 is more negative, implying hidden or selfish motives. Common in political and business reporting.
READING NOTE:
The kanji 思惑 is an irregular reading (jukujikun). The standard on'yomi reading しわく exists but is rare.
COMMON COLLOCATIONS:
- 思惑どおり: as planned, as expected
- 思惑が外れる: for expectations to miss the mark
- 思惑が絡む: for ulterior motives to be involved
- 政治的思惑: political calculation