1.
matter of chance; unpredictable thing
Something whose outcome cannot be predicted and depends heavily on luck or circumstance, such as a contest, election, or business venture.
勝負は水物だ。
A contest is a matter of chance.
選挙は水物だとよく言われる。
Elections are often said to be unpredictable.
商売は水物で、来年どうなるかは誰にも分からない。
Business is unpredictable; no one knows what next year will bring.
Almost always used as a predicate (Xは水物だ) to stress that an outcome is uncertain. Literally "water thing," from the image of something that flows and keeps changing.
COMMON COLLOCATIONS:
- 勝負は水物: the outcome of a match is unpredictable
- 人気は水物: popularity is fickle
SIMILAR WORDS:
- 運次第: depending on luck — focuses specifically on luck
- 不確実: uncertain — neutral and more formal