1.
guess, conjecture, speculation, inference
The act of forming an opinion or conclusion based on incomplete information or indirect evidence. Less certain than a conclusion based on proof.
原因を推測する。
To speculate about the cause.
彼の行動から推測すると、何か隠しているようだ。
Judging from his behavior, he seems to be hiding something.
推測の域を出ないが、犯人は内部の人間ではないかと思う。
This is only speculation, but I think the culprit may be someone inside the organization.
USAGE:
The expression 推測の域を出ない ("does not go beyond speculation") is a set phrase used to acknowledge that something is just a guess. 推測 is more formal than 予想 (prediction) and implies reasoning from indirect evidence.
COMPARISON WITH SIMILAR WORDS:
- 推測: inference from indirect evidence; formal
- 推定: estimation based on data; more technical
- 憶測: speculation; often negative nuance (unfounded guessing)
- 予想: prediction; forward-looking, less analytical
COMMON COLLOCATIONS:
- 推測の域を出ない: to be nothing more than speculation
- 推測が当たる: one's guess proves correct
- 推測にすぎない: to be merely speculation
- ～と推測される: it is speculated that ~